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Market-end update 02-14-2008
By Rob | February 14, 2008
- Better-than-expected earnings from Baidu.com (BIDU)…
- The stimulus package that President Bush signed yesterday…
- A look into whether housing stocks can continue their run…
- Upbeat comments under the heading “Blue chips that can ride out a recession“…Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), 3M (MMM), DuPont (DD), Fortune Brands (FO), and IBM (IBM) are mentioned…
- An article [subscription required] that says Yahoo’s (YHOO) “best chance” to avoid Microsoft’s (MSFT) bid “may be a deal under discussion with News Corp., in which the media conglomerate would swap its ownership of MySpace and several other online properties for a stake of 20% or more in Yahoo“…
- Skepticism on the idea that News Corp. (NWS) and Yahoo (YHOO) will work out a deal that bests Microsoft’s (MSFT) bid for YHOO….
- Some interesting comments from Herb Greenberg about MBIA (MBI) and short sellers…
- Better-than-expected earnings from Bally Technologies Inc. (BYI)..
- Lower-than-expected earnings from Netgear Inc. (NTGR)…
- Comments on First Solar (FSLR)…according to Briefing.com, AmTech has raised their target to $300 and Pacific Crest raised their target to $366…
While those are all stories worth watching, I think it is obviously clear that the biggest story is this -
- Microfiber fabric makes its own electricity? - “U.S. scientists have developed a microfiber fabric that generates its own electricity, making enough current to recharge a cell phone or ensure that a small MP3 music player never runs out of power“…
- Shock horror for would-be power cable thief - “Police in central England are hunting for a badly scorched would-be copper power cable thief after finding a hacksaw embedded in an 11,000 volt power cable Saturday night“…”The thief…is expected to be badly charred, spiky haired and not exactly the brightest bulb in the socket“…
- Game consoles can model black holes, drug molecules - “Researchers are cannibalising the Sony PlayStation 3 console and other gaming hardware, turning them into low-cost supercomputers to model pharmaceutical molecules and black holes“…
YESTERDAY’s REPORT:
A solid bullish day for Wall Street, except for the fact that volume has been rather flat. That makes our conviction in the strenght of the bull iffy. Still, stay with me. Tonight I am somewhat lazy so instead of posting my own charts which are 100% better, I had to lift a few from Kirk the reporter and Mark the trader in order to show you some of the picture today. This below is the SP 500 , watch the resistance at 1400, it should be a bit tough to break through, but Helicopter Ben is going to print lots of dollars for everyone, so soon or a later we are going to cut through it. In conclusion at this point of the market, I am 50/50 bullish/bearish. While a week ago I believed we have more to go down, now the market is telling although not in very loud voice that it wants to go higher. Also, BIDU reported some stunning number, carving a knife through the shorts betting the company is going down.
Solars blew everything out of the water following on spectacular earnings from FSLR. My other two favorites SPWR and STP did great too. In general all the solars run close to 10-20%. From their top late last year, these stocks are still down -45%, which leads me to believe that they will have room to run further. Oil is up again tonight in the future markets, which is great for the solars. Oops, i forgot to mention, FSLR, up 30% tonight, killing all the short who thought this baby is overvalued.
There are a lot of ugly charts out there still, but I am noticing it is mostly the financials that have this problem. It looks like a lot of the tech stocks are now setting double bottoms. AAPL is still down -34% and I think it represents a great value here. VMW is up 15% since it bottomed but I would stay away from this horrible stock. PRXL on all time high and 2-to-1 split looking mighty, I think this one might be go to $100 in the near 1-2 years.
The aggs (MON, MOS, POT) took the day off and managed to decline -1 to-2%. The only one I like here is POT and COIN ($42M market cap) which does not mean much. However, lets wait out 1-2 days and jump back into those if they don’t break down on us.
Uranium stocks are also showing a sign of double bottom, however on very light volume. With oil at $93/barrel, these are going to wake up soon.
The airlines are up nicely in the last few days. How freaky that oil is also up. Are these guys hedged or what? Consider Southwest Airlines, it is down -30% since it topped in 2001. Buffee used to say that airlines are the worst investment. I agree.
Retail stocks are looking good: I like WMT, GPS, COH there.
The Homebuilders are my type of play these days. Altough most of them are -60% down from its highs, I think the long-term fundamentals are here for a upstream trecking.
One stock I am starting to like a lot is Goldman Sachs (GS). Down -25% from all time high, I think the moment is near to snatch up on this awesome superstar.
The Steels are staging a comback with impressive NUE and CMC moves.
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